critical minerals

Against the backdrop of ongoing supply chain challenges around the globe, the urgency of untangling and securing critical mineral supply chains essential to a net zero carbon emissions future is becoming increasingly clear.

Following on the heels of the Biden Administration invoking the Defense Production Act for the “Battery Criticals” – lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel and manganese – the energy provisions in the just passed Inflation Reduction Act are indications that this urgency has begun to resonate with U.S. policymakers, and sends a strong signal to investors that the U.S. is serious about “building the secure, responsible industrial base our economy and national security needs.”

Faced with mounting pressures in the global push towards renewable energy, automakers have been taking steps of their own to build out American EV battery manufacturing.

Toyota, which is building a cell-production facility in North Carolina, has announced an additional investment of $2.5 billion on top of the already committed $1.3 billion.  South Korean battery maker LG and Japanese automaker Honda have announced an investment of $4.4 billion into a joint venture in the United States, with mass production of advanced lithium-ion battery cells to start by the end of 2025.  Panasonic is considering a $4 billion investment into constructing a plant in Oklahoma, and north of the border, recent public filings indicate that Tesla is looking to set up a new advanced manufacturing facility in Canada.

Friends of ARPN can guess what comes next.  As the Wall Street Journal’s Stephen Wilmot wrote last week, “[a]ll this means car makers can perhaps start to relax where they will get EV batteries. The tougher question now is where they will get battery materials.” He adds: “[a]nother wave of investment in inputs such as processed lithium and nickel needs to follow – and with a new urgency.”

As ARPN already pointed out, the Inflation Reduction Act’s requirement that will exclude EVs with material inputs from “foreign entities of concern” from eligibility for the $7,500 tax credit included in the bill, poses a serious challenge because the auto industry is so heavily reliant on battery materials and components from China.  With China being the global hub for battery-mineral refining, says Wilmot, “this will be hard for automakers to work around.”

Not surprisingly, automakers are increasingly lobbying governments to reform the U.S. mine permitting system.  Metal Tech News’s Shane Lasley points to a recent letter penned by Ford Motor Company’s chief government affairs officer Christopher Smith to the U.S. Department of Interior, in which he laments that “[t]oday’s lengthy, costly and inefficient permitting process makes it difficult for American businesses to invest in the extraction and processing of critical minerals in the United States.” Smith calls on the federal government to alleviate the challenges within the U.S. mine permitting framework, which Ford considers “unacceptable and well beyond the requirements facing Australian and Canadian companies, where responsible mining is a given and a prerequisite for obtaining mining permits.”

However, this is far from the only challenge automakers and the mining sector are faced with in their quest to support the green energy transition, as an inter-departmental “tug-o-war” is adding fuel to the fire.  As Lasley writes in an equally insightful piece:

“While the departments of Commerce, Defense, and Energy are forging ahead with programs and investments aimed at ensuring America has the minerals and metals needed to support the clean energy objectives outlined by the White House, and enabled by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, DOI is pumping the breaks on a domestic project that would produce the requisite raw materials.

The Interior Department’s yanking of the permits to build a road that would connect the rich deposits of cobalt, copper, zinc, and other metals in Alaska’s Ambler Mining District to markets demanding sustainable supplies of these mined materials underscores a disconnect within the Biden Administration.”

Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy had lamented DOI’s lack of acknowledgement of Alaska as a potential source and blasted the Ambler Mining District decision and called for federal permitting reform during the recent critical minerals summit held in Alaska, which we covered here:

“This administration must speak with one voice. It wants critical minerals, or it doesn’t. It wants the lower energy prices, or it doesn’t.  It wants to create jobs in the U.S. or it doesn’t.  It wants to protect the environment or it doesn’t. It cares about human rights, or it doesn’t. (…) The disjointed federal permitting process doesn’t just hurt Alaskans (…), it hurts every industry, and every state. (…) 

If we set ambitious goals for EVs or renewables without permitting the production of critical minerals here, those minerals will still be produced, they just won’t be produced in here in America or Alaska, they’ll be produced by child labor, potentially, they’ll be produced without environmental standards, potentially, they’ll be produced at the expense of the American worker, to the benefit, potentially, of our adversaries.”  

As for the IRA bill, the Wall Street Journal points out, “[h]ow far and how fast EV and battery makers need to scramble [to meet the law’s requirements] depends on how the Treasury Department interprets the Inflation Reduction Act. This process, which will be subject to intense lobbying over the coming months, could weaken some of the strings attached.”

However, the pressure to diversify supply chains away from adversaries is here to stay – and with that, the federal government will have to take steps to foster greater predictability in the mining sector to unleash the United States’ mineral potential.  As U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski told attendees of last month’s Alaska critical minerals summit, the rest of the world won’t wait for us, and “other countries” are moving now to implement “longer-term policies that allow them to focus on what it means to be sticking with a policy, and a view, and a vision towards dominance.”

In a new piece for Canada’s Globe and Mail, columnist Robert Muggah zeroes in on the geopolitics of mineral resource supply, which have, in his view, triggered a new “Great Game” – a term coined by British writer Rudyard Kipling to describe the “fierce competition between Victorian Britain and Tsarist Russia, both of which sought to control South Asia and Africa” which “went on to shape geopolitics for much of the rest of the 19th and 20th centuries.”

The new Great Game, according to Muggah, foreshadowed by the 2010 rare earths dispute between China and Japan, gained momentum with the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 which committed countries to significantly reduce greenhouse gases and transition to renewables.

Writes Muggah:

“In order to achieve the agreement’s targets by 2050, more than 60 per cent of installed power capacity will need to come from a combination of solar plants, wind farms, hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal reservoirs and batteries to power electric vehicles. But scaling these climate-friendly technologies comes with a catch: a sixfold increase in the sourcing of so-called critical minerals such as nickel, copper, lithium and cobalt as well as rare earths, by some estimates.

And so while the effort to move away from oil, gas and coal to low-carbon energy sources is essential, it has also unleashed powerful destabilizing forces. Countries are scrambling to secure the minerals needed to power the green transition; competition among major powers to control supply chains could trigger new global security risks.”

Muggah points to China as the undisputed dominant player “when it comes to refining those critical minerals and rare earths, effectively leveraging its state-backed firms, low-cost work force and lax environmental standards to gain a stranglehold on global markets.” Despite its omnipresence in global critical mineral supply chains, he says, China “does not yet dominate the exploration and extraction of critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium or nickel.” As a result, companies with backing from Beijing are “busily scouring international markets for raw materials, from Argentina, Bolivia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa and Zambia, but the competition is fierce.”

While Russia is another key player as one of the top producers of palladium, scandium, titanium and nickel, Russia’s war on Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia have slowed down Moscow-backed domestic critical minerals production and processing and external pursuits, further consolidating China’s pole position in the global race for resources.

Muggah laments North American and Western European lack of expediency to build out their own critical mineral supply chains, not least due to most Western countries facing “major hurdles when it comes to accelerating domestic and international production and processing of critical minerals and rare earths, including the high costs of capital investments, long lead times to build out mines and refineries, and stronger environmental and labour standards compared to countries such as China and Russia.”  However, he says, “supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with China – including Chinese threats to curb rare-earth exports to the U.S. – have all served as a wake-up call,” and a new Great Game is on.

He goes on to detail recent steps taken by the U.S. and European Union to diversify its supply chains away from adversaries in general, and China in particular, which both appear to embrace a comprehensive “all-of-the-above” strategic approach, ranging from strengthening domestic production, over strengthening closed-loop concepts to increased “friend shoring.” 

In this context, Muggah believes Canada “will have a consequential role to play in what is shaping up to be one of the defining struggles of our era,” and goes on to discuss Canada’s latest policy initiatives to strengthen critical mineral supply chains.

Muggah says there is reason for “cautious optimism that Canada can achieve its goals,” but that “Canada and its partners still face major obstacles to meet their ambitions, including from China.”   He points to Chinese firms having acquired several key Canadian mines (see ARPN’s recent post on the issue here) and calls for greater scrutiny for mining deals with state-owned mining companies from authoritarian countries, arguing that “Canada will need to broaden its conception of what constitutes national security in relation to critical minerals and rare earths.”

He closes:

“To achieve more strategic autonomy amid the new Great Game, Canada must build more predictable and sustainable supply chains and take a more pro-active global role in driving the global shift to renewable energy. (…) Notwithstanding China’s firm grip on global supply chains of critical minerals and especially rare earths, Canada and its allies can support a more predictable green transition.

This is one game that Canada can and must help the whole world win.”

The question for the United States, where the midterm elections — and with that intensified partisan politics — are just around the corner, is whether policy makers will maintain their newly gained bipartisan focus on the importance of critical mineral supply chains and continue to work towards achieving greater mineral resource independence.

Just as a new federal law – the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 – may send a much-needed investment signal to the underdeveloped critical mineral supply chains for EVs and other 21st  century technologies, many of which are rife with underinvestment, political risk and poor governance – lawmakers and policy experts gathered for a two-day two-day conference hosted by the [...]

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In a new piece for Canada’s Globe and Mail, Niall Mcgee discusses China’s quiet but systematic campaign to corner the critical minerals segment in Canada and stakeholder reactions in Ottawa, or more precisely, the lack thereof. Citing the 2019 acquisition of the Tanco Mine in Manitoba, known as one of the world’s few sources of cesium [...]

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Against the backdrop of mounting geopolitical and ongoing supply chain challenges, countries are left grappling with the the mineral intensity of the sought-after global transition towards a net zero carbon emissions future. In their quest to untangle complex critical mineral supply chains and reduce over-reliance on adversary nations, the extent of which was first brought [...]