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Touting his infrastructure package at Ford’s electric vehicle plant in Michigan last week, President Joe Biden declared: “The future of the auto industry is Dearborn,electric. There’s no turning back.”  Against the backdrop of the Biden Administration’s push for a low carbon energy future and a global push to reduce greenhouse gases, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new study modeling scenarios for carbon neutrality by 2050.  Reading the IEA Report in light of the president’s comment, there’s “no turning back” to prior levels of demand for energy-critical minerals and metals either.

“The world has a viable pathway to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions in 2050, but it is narrow and requires an unprecedented transformation of how energy is produced, transported and used globally,” say the authors of “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.” 

Sure to cause a stir and ruffle some feathers, the agency portrays the report as “the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth.”

While calling for an “immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies, combined with a major global push to accelerate innovation,” the report also makes clear that this shift will not be feasible without the mining sector, because it will require massive material inputs on the critical minerals front:

“Minerals are essential components in many of today’s rapidly growing clean energy technologies – from wind turbines and electricity networks to electric vehicles. Demand for these minerals will grow quickly as clean energy transitions gather pace.”

Meanwhile, according to Faith Birol, executive director of the IEA, “[t]he data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions.”

In order to achieve a framework for mineral resource security strong enough to underpin a net zero transition by 2050, the IEA study has identified six pillars of a broad approach to complement countries’ existing initiatives, ranging from ensuring adequate investment in the mineral supply chain (which could include bolstering national geological surveys, streamlining permitting procedures to shorten lead times, or providing financing support to de-risk projects) to promoting research and development and tech innovation all across the value chain, from extraction to recycling.

To those engaged in the current political discourse over critical mineral resource security who seem to see recycling as the holy grail or panacea, the IEA report throws a curveball, stating that “recycling of end-of-life lithium-ion batteries to recover the valuable minerals, and to a smaller extent their reuse as second-life batteries, can reduce combined primary supply requirements for these minerals by around 10%.”

While that number is certainly not negligible, the bottom line of the IEA study is in line with the consensus held by panelists at a virtual policy forum put on by U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources Republicans last week — which was that the United States must pursue an “all of the above” approach to critical mineral resource security.

[For more information on the policy forum, and a link to re-watch it in its entirety, click here.]

As John Adams, U.S. Army Brigadier General (ret.) wrote for Inside Sources:

“We have come to understand all too well the dangers of overreliance on OPEC and unstable regions of the world for oil. The lessons learned from 20th-century energy security are clear and the same mistakes must not be repeated with critical minerals.

Now is the moment to take a whole-of-government approach to address this challenge head-on. As the IEA report makes clear, doing so will require increased recycling of materials and strengthened cooperation with allied producer nations, but it will also require an energetic commitment to encourage responsible new domestic mineral production to meet the enormous demand now on the horizon. The sooner we recognize the importance of mining and critical materials to every dimension of our national security and economic agenda, the better off we will be.”

Photo credit: Ford

During a virtual congressional policy forum on critical minerals hosted by House Committee on Natural Resources Republicans earlier this week, experts agreed that the United States must adopt a holistic “all of the above” approach to critical mineral resource policy.

Panelists at the event, which can be re-watched in its entirety here, included:

Daniel McGroarty, principal, Carmot Strategic Group, Inc and principal, American Resources Policy Network
Laurel Sayer, president and CEO, Perpetua Resources
Reed Blakemore, deputy director, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Michael Moats, professor of metallurgical engineering and director of the O’Keefe Institute, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Abigail Wulf, director, Center for Critical Minerals Strategy, Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE)
Tim Gould, head of division, Energy Supply Outlooks and Investment, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Dr. Ian Lange, director, Mineral and Energy Economics Program, Colorado School of Mines

ARPN’s Daniel McGroarty told members that said “all of the above” approach should be applied not only to resource development, but also to Congressional policy, which currently is not maximizing policy tools already on the books. He also suggested that to secure domestic critical mineral supply chains, stakeholders should not only look to bolster domestic production, but also processing, turning “smelters into critical minerals hubs” and “treating them as the assets they are.”

There was a broad consensus among panelists that recycling, while important, would not obviate the need for domestic resource production in light of growing need for critical minerals. In fact, pointing to a brand new study released by the agency on the material inputs needed for a carbon neutral future, the IEA’s Tim Gould argued that recycling could only account for about 10% of the required mineral resources to underpin the transition to zero carbon.

Pointing to the growing threat of China controlling critical mineral resources, SAFE’s Abigail Wulf argued that the 2020s will be a “critical decade that will challenge the United States’ ability to consistently and effectively project its political, military, and economic strength.”

She continued:

“During this time, the production of batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and other advanced technologies will take on increased geopolitical importance in the face of a rising China. The nation that prevails in this struggle to control the manufacturing and distribution of these key industries will lead the global transition to a new energy future and the next industrial revolution. The United States cannot afford to lag behind China, risking our position of global economic leadership, leaving us vulnerable to supply disruptions and dependent on nations that do not share our values.”

Speakers highlighted the importance — and opportunity — of co-product development, and agreed that removing uncertainty in the mining sector was warranted.

Better education on what Dr. Michael Moats of the Missouri University of Science and Technology called a “societal lack of recognition of the importance of where things come from,” or the “dangerous disconnect,” between using manufactured goods and understanding what goes into making the product, would further be key ways to address the critical minerals crisis. After all, it’s not magic, or fairy dust that makes our 21st century hi-tech world go round.

As McGroarty closed his remarks:

“Critical minerals aren’t critical because of where they come from – they’re critical because of where they take us. American ingenuity, innovation and investment can do a lot – but the power of the private sector can do far more if public policy sends a strong signal that critical minerals matter – to the technology revolution transforming our world and to America’s place as the leader in that transformation.”

Access Daniel McGroarty’s full remarks as submitted here.

Click here to re-watch the entire forum.

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