Blog

Skyrocketing rare earth element (REE) prices in 2010 left companies wondering whether and they would be affected – a question I have been trying to answer, first through my Ph.D. research and now, as a postdoctoral associate at the Materials Systems Laboratory at MIT. As part of an ongoing project with Ford Motor Company, my colleagues (from Ford and MIT) and I have been examining critical materials, in particular rare earth elements. Also covered by The Economist, we recently published our findings on future implications of global vehicle electrification and adoption of wind power for rare earth availability – based on modeling two scenarios with the following assumptions:

“Moderate demand” scenario

• 27-35% of vehicles sold in 2035 electric
• no use of rare earth permanent magnet technology in wind power technology

“Aggressive rare earth demand” scenario
(rare earth requirements for reaching stabilization of greenhouse gas levels at 450 ppm)

• 80% of vehicles sold in 2035 electric
• rare earths used in electric cars and wind turbines

We found that mineable reserves are not expected to be constraining in next 25 years under either scenario. Calculating the rate of growth of rare earth demand for these scenarios we determined that two REEs, neodymium and dysprosium would experience particularly rapid growth rates of 8% and 14%, respectively, for the “aggressive demand” scenario. For dysprosium, this rate is about 3x greater than the historical supply growth rate.

What does this mean for rare earth end-users? My research has shown that rapid demand growth may be mitigated by technological actions such as materials substitution, improved efficiency, and increased recycling – options that are already reportedly being researched by end-users motivated by high rare earth prices.

Industry experts have blasted the Pentagon’s latest (unpublished) report which claims that domestic sources will allow the U.S. military to meet its demand for rare earths by next year. “The only way we can get that material right now is from a foreign company in China,” said Jack Lifton, co-founder of Technology Metals Research.

American reliance on foreign nations leaves us vulnerable to supply disruptions and places our national security at risk. When our military needs rare earths, it’s imperative that we have a domestic supply on hand.

Thomas Jefferson once said that “the most valuable of all talents is that of never using two words when one will do. ” With Jefferson as our guide, we note here Congressman Mike Coffman’s response in full to the Pentagon’s long-awaited report on Rare Earths in the defense supply chain: “China still controls the production (…) more

For some time now, quiet talk in the corners of metals conferences has turned to the question of Chinese metals smuggling, with the rare earths as Exhibit A. How extensive is REE smuggling? Simon Moores of Industrial Minerals, writing from the Industrial Minerals Congress & Exhibition (IM21) in Budapest, Hungary reports that: “Western consumers of (…) more

National Mining Association President and CEO Hal Quinn had a great piece in the Washington Times last week striking a tune that will be familiar to readers of our blog. Quinn argued that it’s time for the United States “to develop a strategy to bring more U.S. minerals mining operations online.” Here are some of (…) more

With the dust settling over the announcement of a new WTO case brought on by the U.S., Japan and the EU against China’s restrictive rare earths policies, American Resources expert Gareth Hatch has taken the time to dig (pun intended) a little deeper into the issue and its possible implications. While many have talked about (…) more

While many of us in the continental U.S. are enjoying record-breaking temperatures this March, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton probably needed her down coat as she embarked on her new mission: laying the groundwork for a common EU policy on the Arctic. Traveling near the North Pole earlier this month, Ashton made a case (…) more

Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey (D) had a piece up on The Hill’s Congress Blog last week which highlighted China’s near-total rare earths supply monopoly and resulting challenges for our domestic industries. Among other things, it also called for increased domestic rare earths production. Writes Casey: While I hope to see quick action from China, we (…) more

According to The Australian, China is stepping up its quest for access to mineral resources in Latin America, with Chile being a key focal point. While Chile’s vibrant resources sector has long attracted international miners (most recently, see the tie-up between Chile’s Molymet and the U.S.’s Molycorp), and the country traditionally maintained close relations with (…) more

Contrasting sharply with the current U.S. domestic mineral policy environment, Canada’s federal budget to be released by the Harper Administration next week will reflect its stated commitment to removing barriers to investment and resource development. Specific legislative language has yet to be introduced; however, according to the Canada Free Press, the budget outline will emphasize (…) more