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Supply chain challenges in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s war on Ukraine, rising resource nationalism in the southern hemisphere, and now China’s Xi Jinping doubling-down on its zero-Covid policy this week which may lead to more lockdowns with serious economic and trade consequences – critical mineral supply chains can’t seem to catch a break.

As the stakes continue to get higher and stakeholder pressure to take action mounts, it is encouraging to see that mainstream awareness of the issue is increasing.

Case in point: CNN’s Fareed Zakaria dedicating a “Last Look” segment of his Global Public Square program to the new race for natural resources triggered by the green transition.

Followers of ARPN will appreciate that unlike much of the coverage of the critical minerals challenge we’re seeing lately, which often might have you believe that concerns only revolve around the “battery criticals”lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, Zakaria’s segment makes clear that the challenge is much bigger – and includes many other metals and minerals, including what we at ARPN have dubbed the “unsung hero of the green energy transition” and one of the “most critical non-criticals” (alluding to the fact that the U.S. official government critical minerals list has thus far not included it):

Copper.

As we previously argued, while less flashy and headline-grabbing that some of its tech metal peers, Copper deserves far more credit and attention than it has been getting — not least due to its versatility stemming from traditional uses and an increasing range of new applications.  Then there’s Copper’s Gateway Metal status, with the metal yielding access to Critical List co-products essential to “manufacturing the advanced technologies that will power or generations to come, such as Cobalt, Nickel, Tellurium, Molybdenum, Rhenium, Arsenic and REEs.

In the context of advanced energy technology, Copper is an indispensable component for the manufacture of EVs, wind turbines, solar panels, and the electric grid.   The manufacturing process for EVs requires four times more Copper than gas powered vehicles, and the expansion of electricity networks will lead to more than doubled Copper demand for grid lines, according to the IEA – so it’s good to see mainstream media is including the material in its coverage.

Zakaria rightly outlines the challenges stemming from the United States’ over-reliance on foreign supplies, and China’s having cornered the market not only in the supply, but also the processing segment – a challenge Laura Skaer, member of the board of directors of the Women’s Mining Coalition and former director of the American Exploration & Mining Association, outlined succinctly in a piece for Morning Consult a year ago, arguing that “China already refines 50 percent of the world’s copper and the United States only refines about 3 percent. National security experts have warned that relying on China for critical supply-chain materials like refined copper poses a serious threat to America’s national security interests.”

While the U.S. has taken important steps to reduce our over-reliance on foreign metals and minerals and the processing thereof, much more remains to be done.  Zakaria puts his finger on the crux of the issue stakeholders are currently grappling with.

He says:

“The minerals industry isn’t as popular as renewable energy – particularly on the Left. There are real environmental hazards. But if people want to protect the planet from climate change and authoritarian powers, they will have to get onboard with new mineral projects.”

He continues:

“So far the process very slow, according to the IEA. Even after mineral deposits are discovered somewhere, the average time to production is over fifteen years. Some of that is planning and construction, but governments can streamline the permitting process to get these projects moving.”

While pointing to the importance of other components that ARPN has consistently highlighted as part of a comprehensive “all-of-the-above” approach to mineral resource security – recycling and closed-loop solutions as well as increased R&D in the materials science segment – Zakaria closes:

“This will have to remain a priority for years and years to come. For the sake of the planet and international security, we will need to dig deep, quite literally.” 

Watch the full segment:

CNN, Fareed Zakaria, Global Public Square, Last Look: The green transition will trigger a new race for natural resources, 4/30/2022

It’s not exactly news to followers of ARPN that the global green energy transition will require vast amounts of critical minerals, however, against the backdrop of the raised geopolitical stakes in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine and rising resource nationalism in the southern hemisphere, new figures released by Belgium’s KU Leuven University underscore the urgency for stakeholders to act:

A new report commissioned by European industry group Eurometaux, finds that “[t]he global energy transition is progressing faster than the mining project pipeline, with copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel, and rare earths all at risk of a disruptive demand pull between now and 2035,”

and that “meeting the European Union’s Green Deal goal of climate neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and 7 to 26 times the amount of rare earth metals compared to Europe’s current use.”

For other metals and minerals deemed essential for renewable energy technology, the KU paper estimates that the transition “will also require 30% more aluminum than what is employed today in the continent, as well as 35% more copper, 45% more silicon, 100% more nickel and 330% more cobalt.”

While the KU Leuven University authors acknowledge the role of recycling and even argue that, provided proper investments are made and bottlenecks are appropriately addressed,  40-75% of Europe’s clean energy metal needs could be met through local recycling by 2050, critical shortages could arise in the next 15 years.

Until the loop is closed, the European Green Deal will require more inner-European mining and refining.  The catch, as noted by Mikael Staffas, Eurometaux president and CEO of Boliden, a Swedish metals group, is that the planning, permitting and construction process for a new mine requires 15 years – a challenge that sounds all too familiar to observers on this side of the Atlantic.

The challenge was already immense before Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this spring, but, as Reuters’s Andy Home points out in his latest piece on the issue, associated disruptions to global supply chains massively complicate “Europe’s race to achieve what it calls ‘strategic autonomy.’”

Pivoting away from Russia and China as suppliers is the order of the day, but, as Home outlines, “Europe’s mineral ambitions risk being frustrated by both a lack of coherent policy framework to stimulate domestic supply and a rapidly-changing global landscape where everyone is trying to secure enough electric vehicle metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.”

Home believes the European Union is in need of an “accelerator” – and it could be informed by the Biden Administration’s recent invoking of the Defense Production Act (DPA) via Presidential Determination to jump-start U.S. domestic critical mineral supply chains.

Home cites Kerstin Jorna, director general of the European Commission’s GROW department who indicated that a critical mineral-focused follow-up to the European Commission’s Chip Act from February of this year, which includes financing and other measures to reduce European overreliance on overseas suppliers of semiconductors, is actively being worked on and is coming “soon.”

To Home, who has followed the critical minerals challenge closely, “[i]t needs to,” because “Europe’s struggling metals sector desperately needs similar messaging and a way of punching through the tangle of Commission and national regulations that is actively impeding more investment in the metals sector.”

Home is on to something, and U.S. stakeholders should take note.  The invoking of the DPA may serve as the accelerator on the messaging front when it comes to strengthening U.S. critical mineral supply chains – but what is equally important is “punching through the tangle of (…) regulations that is actively impeding more investment in the metals sector,” an area in which the U.S. – just like its transatlantic partner — still has its work cut out.

As U.S. stakeholders grapple with the question of how to bolster U.S. supply chains for the battery criticals and other critical minerals amidst skyrocketing demand scenarios and growing geopolitical pressures, our allies are taking steps of their own to unleash their mineral potential. Looking north, in order to “secure Canada’s place in important supply chains with [...]

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Stressing that the “The United States depends on unreliable foreign sources for many of the strategic and critical materials necessary for the clean energy,” specifically for EV and large capacity batteries, U.S. President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to accelerate buildout of domestic supply chains via Presidential Determination earlier this month. While, as Reuter columnist Andy [...]

Last week, against the backdrop of mounting pressures on U.S. critical mineral supply chains, U.S. President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to encourage domestic production of the metals and minerals deemed critical for electric vehicle and large capacity batteries. The move is a sign that “America is finally taking the battery metal shortage seriously,” as the [...]

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Pandemic induced supply chain shocks, increasing resource nationalism in various parts of the world, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exactly one month ago have brought the stakes for securing critical mineral resource supply chains to a whole new level. The emerging geopolitical landscape has sent countries scrambling to devise strategies to not only ensure steady [...]

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