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American Resources Policy Network
Promoting the development of American mineral resources.
  • Groundhog Day All Over Again in Spite of Rising Pressures? USGS Releases Annual Mineral Commodity Summaries Report

    Earlier this week, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its latest iteration of the annual Mineral Commodity Summaries, a much-cited report that every year gives us a data-driven glimpse into our nation’s mineral resource dependencies. ARPN has been reviewing the report on an annual basis.

    Last year, we noted that our coverage of the report coincided with Groundhog Day, February 2nd.  And just like in the Bill Murray classic movie, in which the clock jumps back to the same day all over again every morning, the Critical Mineral movie appeared to bring us back to a situation of ongoing deep dependency on foreign sourced metals and minerals every year – at least in recent memory.

    This year, we’re once again back with a look at the report, and, lo and behold, it’s Groundhog Day all over again – and by the looks of it not only with regards to the date, but also in terms of what we’re seeing, especially on one of the most telling charts of the report – the depiction of U.S. Net Import Reliance, or “Blue Wall of Dependency” as we have dubbed it based on the many blue bars showing our significant degree of import dependence.

    While there are some changes from last year’s report, the number of metals and minerals for which we are 100% import dependent stayed the same at 15.  The the number of metals and minerals for which we are 50% or more import-dependent has dropped slightly, after having gone up over the year before — with the new report pegging it at 49 versus 51 in 2023 and 47 in 2022.

    When cross-referencing the U.S. Net Import Reliance chart with the 2022 Final list of Critical Minerals, the United States was 100% net import reliant for 12, and an additional 29 critical mineral commodities (including 14 Rare Earth lanthanides, which are listed under rare earths) had a net import reliance greater than 50% of apparent consumption — a small drop by two over last year’s report.

    Once more, ARPN  can’t help but observe that the trendlines represent a stark contrast to U.S. import reliance for metals and minerals in 1984, when we were 100% import reliant for just 11 mineral commodities.

    A few changes for individual metals and minerals included in the report are notable and significant, particularly in the context of the accelerating global green energy transition:

    For the Rare Earths, a key group of tech metals underpinning 21st Century technology and the accelerating green energy transition, our import reliance had dropped from 100% in the 2021 report to “greater than 90%” in the 2022 report.  Last year’s report had, this number back up to “greater than 95%” and it remains at the same level in this year’s report, with rare earth concentrate being extracted in the U.S. currently sent to China for separation.  Once again, a single link lacking in a supply chain continues U.S. dependency.

    For Lithium, perhaps the most frequently cited battery tech mineral, and Cobalt, another one of Lithium’s “battery critical” peers, U.S. import reliance stayed the same at “greater than 25%” for lithium, while Cobalt’s number dropped from 76% to 69%.

    For Graphite and Manganese, both battery criticals – the USGS report shows both still pegged at an unchanged 100% import reliance, unchanged from last year.

    For Nickel, the final battery critical and a new element on the 2022 Critical Mineral List, import-reliance saw a small jump from 56% last year to 57% in this year’s report, after a more significant jump the year before (from 48% to 56%).

    Import reliance for Platinum represents one of the biggest changes over last year’s report, which had the metal pegged at 66%. That number increased to 84 percent in the 2024 report.

    Another change worth mentioning is the upward trajectory for Copper import reliance. In the 2010s, import reliance for Copper hovered around 30 to 35 percent, but in recent years, that number has gone up.  This year’s report has it pegged at 46%, up from 41% in the 2023 report.  This development that may be of particular relevance as in 2024, the U.S. Government Critical Minerals List is up for another update, on the 3-year timetable codified in federal law, and in spite of the metal’s inarguable growing importance in the context of decarbonization efforts and expert warnings that there may not be enough copper to meet decarbonization goals in the next few decades, the material has to date been left off the whole-of-government list. Congressional efforts to change this may have not succeeded in 2023, but the Department of Energy designated the material a critical material as part of its 2023 Critical Materials Assessment, further raising the material’s clout.

    As in previous iterations of the report, China continues to be the elephant in the data room. And against all pledges in recent years for the United States to reduce import reliance on supplies from China, the 2023 Mineral Commodity Summaries lists China 24 times as one of the major import sources of metals and minerals for which our net import reliance is 50% or greater (which is down by one over last year) – and for all the talk about decoupling supply chains from China and against the backdrop of the escalating trade and tech wars between Beijing and Washington (see our coverage here), this continues to be a concern.

    Like last year’s report, this year’s Mineral Commodity Summaries report features an expanded chapter on developments in the critical minerals realm, identifying trend lines, and supply chain security and U.S. government critical minerals initiatives as well as critical mineral investments.

    Last year we noted that “while the urgency of the need to secure critical mineral supply chains has registered with stakeholders over the past few years, USGS’s findings underscore once more that supply chains in the 21st Century are extremely complex and meaningful change takes time – and the developments of 2022 ranging from increased resource nationalism in the Southern hemisphere over war in Ukraine to rising geopolitical tensions have not made untangling supply chains any easier.”

    Since then, the stakes have only gotten higher as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and U.S.-Chinese relations appear to sour, but ARPN’s basic assessment of the situation stays the same.

    So, with the report revealing more of the same, and in true Groundhog Day fashion, we revisit last year’s post, in which we stated:

    “In Bill Murray’s movie, it took the protagonist several years to realize how to change behavior to break the cycle.  We know by now that to break our cycle of resource dependence, it will take a comprehensive ‘all of the above’ approach to critical mineral resource policy – and stakeholders have come to realize this and have increasingly embraced the concept.  We continue to stand by what ARPN’s Dan McGroarty stated during a congressional hearing in 2019 – ‘we can’t admire the problem anymore. We don’t have the luxury of time.’

    If we act swiftly and comprehensively, there may just be a chance that we will wake up twelve months from now not to another Groundhog Day, but to a 2024 Mineral Commodity Summaries that paints a picture of reduced resource dependence.”

    2024’s report was not the one to paint that picture, but in light of recent policy developments (see our recap of 2023 here and refer to page 18 – 22 of the report), there is still hope we will be getting closer by the time next year’s Groundhog Day rolls around.  Meanwhile, with apologies to Punxsutawney Phil’s cheery forecast of an early spring, ARPN is projecting another long winter ahead of Critical Mineral foreign dependency.

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  • Tit for Tat – Escalation in Tech Wars Continues as China Alleges “Hysteria” and “Hegemonic Manner” on the Part of U.S.

    While on the surface the Biden Administration and its counterpart in Beijing have been working to “calm the waters” between the two superpowers, and Chinese state media took an almost conciliatory tone, the Tech Wars bubbling beneath the surface have been intensifying, and the arrows continue to point increasingly towards confrontation.

    This week, a China Daily editorial zeroes in on provisions of the National Defense Authorization Act passed by Congress on December 22, which prevents the Pentagon from procuring batteries from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd, BYD Co., and four other Chinese companies.

    The China Daily was quick to dismiss the impact of the restrictive measure to “likely be limited given that it is still several years before the ban takes effect” and does not extend to commercial purchases, allowing, for instance, Ford Motor Co. to continue licensing technology from CATL for its electric vehicle batteries,” however, as Anna Ashraf points out in a piece for Benzinga Financial News and Data“industries and lawmakers often use such rules as guidelines to determine trustworthy materials, products, and companies for their business operations.”

    The China Daily piece goes on to accuse U.S. policy makers aiming to curb Chinese influence over U.S. supply chains of “hysteria” arguing that “rather than seeking win-win cooperation with China in the sector that will determine the future of the energy transition, some US politicians have sought to politicize the issue, by unveiling rules aimed at keeping Chinese components out of EVs sold in the US.”

    Editors argue that recent high level government working group meetings indicate that “the trend of easing tensions between the two countries still continues, and will not be easily reversed by disruptive moves such as that to curb China’s EV industry boom,” however, over the course of the last few days, the rhetoric of China’s government officials in Beijing and emissaries abroad has a taken a sharper edge, as evidenced most recently by remarks by China’s ambassador to the Netherlands in response to U.S. chip-equipment curbs, telling journalists in an interview that “if the Americans treat us in a hegemonic manner, we will of course respond.”

    These remarks follow on the heels of Chinese Ministry of Commerce publicly alleging that the U.S. is weaponizing export controls and using them as a tool earlier this month in reference to questions about Dutch chipmaker ASML, which, per Dutch government directive, has stopped its exports of certain chip components to China, supposedly due to U.S. pressure.

    In light of the stakes and the extent of Chinese control over critical mineral supplies, U.S. policy makers’ efforts to bolster domestic supply chains hardly amount to “hysteria,” but rather a growing awareness and willingness to finally tackle an acute challenge, particularly as relations between the Washington and Beijing, in spite of high-level diplomacy and working group meetings, continue to sour.

    The U.S. has taken a few steps to reduce its critical mineral supply chain vulnerabilities in recent weeks. The question is, how will China respond.

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  • Saudi Arabia Makes Emphatic Entrance onto Critical Minerals Stage — With Implications for U.S. and Allies

    Earlier this month, industry stakeholders and investors flocked to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to attend the kingdom’s Future Minerals Forum.  Reports that Saudi Arabia was throwing its hat into the critical minerals ring had made headlines on several occasions throughout 2023, but the kingdom’s growing importance was palpable at the event, which previously had not been “on the [...]
  • A Visual Reminder Why China Matters in the Context of U.S. Critical Mineral Resource Policy

    Voters of Taiwan have spoken, and have elected the current vice president, Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate whom China most distrusts according to the Wall Street Journal, as their new president.  As Chun Han Wong writes for the Journal, his election “puts at risk a fragile détente between Washington and Beijing, threatening another flare-up between the world’s biggest [...]
  • As Tech Wars Between U.S. and China Deepen, U.S. House Votes to Overturn Waiver of “Buy America” Requirements for Taxpayer-Funded EV Charging Stations

    In a recent commentary for CSIS, Scott Kennedy characterized U.S.-China relations as “in a linear downward spiral,” in which the escalating trade war, the coronavirus pandemic, the Tech Wars, and growing geopolitical tensions “fed a sense of fatalism that the countries were heading toward the abyss of outright economic decoupling and a disastrous military conflict.” But if the [...]
  • Hot-Off-The-Press Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) Brings Defense Production Act Back into Focus for Critical Mineral Supply Chain Security

    Against the backdrop of an already volatile geopolitical context with hot wars raging in Central Europe and the Middle East and the Tech War pitting China versus the U.S. intensifying, the U.S. Department of Defense has announced the release of its first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS), which, according to the White House’s November 2023 statement is [...]
  • New Year, New Round of Tech Wars Escalation?

    Happy New Year! They may say “Out with the Old, in with the New,” but if the waning days of 2023 are any indication of what is to come in 2024, we’ll likely continue down the path we’ve been on for the past twelve months, at least when it comes to the Tech Wars. Somewhat lost in [...]
  • ARPN’s Year in Review – 2023

    – A Look at 2023 Through the Prism of Critical Mineral Resource Policy -  In the waning days of December 2022, ARPN and others were gearing up for a watershed year in the critical minerals realm – a year which could be a “breaking point if there is to be an EV revolution/transformation,” and one that would [...]
  • Members of Congress to DoD on Seabed Mining: “U.S. Can’t Afford to Cede Another Critical Mineral Resource to China”

    While last month’s meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was aimed at reducing tension between the two global powers, Evan Medeiros, a senior fellow on foreign policy at the Centre for China Analysis who served on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, believes that “the U.S.-China relationship is entering [...]
  • All Arrows Point to Escalation of Tech Wars – U.S. Secretary of Commerce Comments on U.S. Competitiveness and the China Challenge

    While the recent meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco last month was seen by some as a step towards alleviating tension between the two global powers, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo’s latest speech and subsequent comments at the Reagan [...]

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