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As nations all across the globe scramble to secure critical mineral supply chains against the backdrop of surging demand in the context of the green energy transition and rising geopolitical tensions, India is stepping up its critical mineral resource policy game.

This week, the Indian Ministry of Mines released a comprehensive Critical Minerals List, consisting of 30 metals and minerals deemed critical for India’s ambition for cleaner technologies in electronics, telecommunications, transport and defense, according to the government.

The list comprises the group of 17 rare earth elements (REEs) and six platinum group metals (PGMs) as complexes. It also encompasses four of what ARPN has dubbed the “battery criticals” lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel (India’s list does not include manganese which rounds out the five battery criticals), as well as antimony, beryllium, bismuth, gallium, germanium, hafnium, indium, molybdenum, niobium, phosphorous, potash, rhenium, silicon, strontium, tantalum, tellurium, tin, titanium, tungsten, vanadium, zirconium, selenium, and cadmium.

Lastly, the list also includes copper, a mainstay metal and key component of the green energy transition which the United States has thus far failed to add to its own list of critical minerals in spite of numerous pushes for its addition.

According to Indian web news hub Rediff.com, the government plans to encourage public and private investment in exploration, mining and processing to secure the country’s critical mineral supply chains, and will seek to “facilitate the adoption of advanced technologies and international collaborations to enhance efficiency and environmental sustainability in the extraction and processing of critical minerals.”

One of the first such international collaborations was just made official during a state visit of India’s Prime Minister Narenda Modi to Washington, D.C. last week, where Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden announced the country’s joining of the Minerals Security Partnership alongside several bilateral and defense deals.

The MSP is a partnership between the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and several other countries convened in June 2022 as an initiative to bolster supply chains while aiming “to ensure that critical minerals are produced, processed, and recycled in a manner that supports countries in realizing the full economic development potential of their mineral resources.”

As the rest of the world aims to decouple its critical mineral supply chains from China, which has long dominated most of the critical minerals sector across all links of the supply chain, India is looking to harness its geopolitical wealth to become a “global hub for critical mineral production and reinforce its position as a major player in the global economy.”

In keeping with that objective, India’s recent moves have global implications.

At the beginning of this year, a New York Times piece called on G20 leaders gathering in Davos, Switzerland, to “pivot to the new reality provoked by the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the growth of extreme inequalities and aggressive Russian and Chinese autocracies.” 

In the critical mineral realm, these recent events served as a catalyst for a new “Great Game,” which the geopolitics of mineral resource supply had triggered and which gained momentum with the adoption of the Paris agreement in 2015.

India’s recent critical mineral moves are highly relevant in the context of this new “Great Game,” particularly as relations between India and China are strained by an ongoing border conflict and growing regional rivalry, both of which are shaping South Asia’s security landscape and strategic environment.

With India having overtaken China as the world’s most populous country and set to become the third-largest economy in the coming years, India’s recent moves could be seen as a direct challenge by Beijing.

As Frédéric Grere and Manisha Reuter outline for the European Council on Foreign Relations, “New Delhi still exerts a dominant role in South Asia and, specifically, the Indian Ocean, but as China consolidates its position in the region, its attitude towards India has become more assertive. India remains resolute about preventing Chinese hegemony in Asia, repeatedly stressing that a multipolar world starts with a multipolar Asia, and seeking partnerships with a variety of countries, including the US and the EU. Beijing is concerned about India’s growing military ties with the US and tends to consider India’s intentions through the lens of its own rivalry with the US.”

The new Great Game may have just gotten Greater.

The West is getting serious about reducing its vulnerabilities against the backdrop of an increased threat of China weaponizing its control of critical materials supply chains.

As the Financial Times reports, the Minerals Security Partnership, convened by the U.S. in June of 2022 which encompasses 12 countries plus the European Union, is planning to release by the end of this year a shortlist of “some 15 projects culled from about 200 options,” according to Jose Fernandez, U.S. undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment.  Projects slated for MSP support will be located in various parts of the globe with some in Africa, “a couple” in Europe, a few in Latin America, and others in Asia, and will involve various segments of the supply chain, including mining, processing, and recycling.

According to Fernandez, being a victim of Chinese supply chain weaponization had prompted several countries to join the MSP in the first place, and with China continuing to ratchet up export restrictions in the face of skyrocketing demand for battery criticals — lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel and manganese — and other materials underpinning the green energy shift and defense technology, the stakes are only getting higher.

As ARPN outlined, Beijing — known to have a penchant for tight state control over its resource sector, has been tightening its reins on its critical mineral supply chains even further in recent months, specifically for the country’s lithium battery supply chain, and has established a new state-owned group to serve as a “consolidated hub for the country’s iron ore trade,” with the mandate for “China Mineral Resources Group” covering mining, ore processing and trading.   The Chinese government is currently considering prohibiting exports of certain rare-earth magnet technology, adding fuel to the fire as tensions between China and the West soar.

As the Wests resolve to break China’s dominance over critical mineral supply chain mounts, Christina Lu, writing for Foreign Policy, cautions:

 “(…) there are more questions than answers about how these efforts will pan out. As lawmakers continue to hammer out new agreements behind closed doors, it remains unclear how they align with global trading rules and what this momentum means for countries that lack free trade agreements with the United States. Engineering supply chains isn’t as simple as finding new mines, either; it involves an entire ecosystem of processing, refining, and manufacturing capabilities.”

She adds:

“China spent decades building out its industry, and experts warn that wrestling new supply chains will be an expensive and arduous uphill battle that the United States is only just beginning.” 

However, every success story has a beginning — and agreement on a series of projects to support as a unified bloc can be an important piece of the puzzle if embedded in a comprehensive all-of-the-above approach to mineral resource security; one that covers both partnerships and alliances as well as supporting the domestic advancement of projects covering all aspects of the supply chain.

As ARPN stated before:

“Beijing will not slow down its global quest for resource dominance, and the critical mineral arms race will continue to heat up.  As such, it is good to see that stakeholders here and elsewhere are finally beginning to acknowledge this fact and are ‘gearing up for the long haul.’”

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